Table 3.

Modeling studies investigating the influence of climate change on permafrost thaw and groundwater flow. ALT, active layer thickness; PF, permafrost; GW, groundwater.

Model attributeTrajectory (comment)Model dimensionScale (vertical × horizontal)Location (model basis)Model nameReference
m
GW dischargeincrease (due to PF thaw)2D200 × 1000Hypothetical scenarioModified FlexPDEBense et al., 2009
ALT (1) and supra-permafrost flow (2)increase (up to threefold) for (1) and (2)2D200 × 250Tibet Plateau, ChinaSUTRAGe et al., 2011
ALT (1) and seasonal variability of GW discharge (2)increase (1) and decrease due to permafrost thinning (2)2D30 × 100Hypothetical scenarioMarsFloFrampton et al., 2011
ALTincrease (to 3 m)1D50 (vertical)Alaska, USAHydrusJiang et al., 2012
Baseflow and sub-permafrost flowincrease2D600× 10,000Hypothetical scenarioModified FlexPDEBense et al., 2012
Glaciation cycles and sub-river talik closuretalik closure post glaciation2D200 × 500Paris Basin, FranceCast3MGrenier et al., 2013
PF distribution, GW flowenhanced PF thaw, GW flux, open talik formation2D2000 × 5000Hypothetical scenarioSUTRAMcKenzie and Voss, 2013
PF thaw and GW flowdecrease in intra-annual flow variability2D30 × 100Hypothetical scenarioMarsFloFrampton et al., 2013
ALT, supra-PF flux, lake/GW exchangeenhanced ALT, supra-PF flux, lake/GW exchange, and lake talik evolution time2D500 × 1800Alaska, USASUTRAWellman et al., 2013
PF distribution and dynamics after lake recessiondecreased likelihood of reforming PF following lake recession1D20Alaska, USASUTRABriggs et al., 2014
ALT, solute travel timeincrease in ALT, minimum and mean solute travel times through the subsurface2D30 × 100Hypothetical scenarioMarsFloFrampton and Destouni, 2015
Alpine GW flow following PF thaw3-fold increase in GW discharge3D2000 (deep) and 25 × 106 (area)Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, ChinaSUTRA (but no coupled heat transfer)Evans et al., 2015
PF thaw, landscape change, and GW flowdecreased plateaus, increased wetlands, rapid PF thaw, enhanced GW flow3D50 × 120 × 60Scotty Creek, NW Territories, CanadaSUTRAKurylyk et al. 2016