Table 2.

Modeling studies investigating the influence of climate change on permafrost thaw and associated changes in surface and near-surface hydrological processes. ALT, active layer thickness; PF, permafrost.

Model attributeTrajectory (Comment)Basin size or # of stationsLocationModel nameReference
Runoff response (uncertainty analysis)probable increase in annual runoff and peak discharge1200 km2Western SiberiaUnnamed modelGelfan, 2011
Future (2041–2070) soil moisture, ALT, and snowfalldecreased soil moisture, increases in ALT, and increased snowpack thicknessPan-Arctic region with 4 sites detailedAlaska, USAPan-Arctic Water Balance Model (PWBM)Rawlins et al., 2013
Soil moisture and ice contentmelting pore ice and increases in soil moisture (1962–2009)Thirteen stations in broad study regionTibetan PlateauVariable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) modelCuo et al., 2015
ALT, soil drainage, soil moisture, and greenhouse gas emissionsincreased ALT, soil drainage, and CO2 emission; decreased soil moisture and CH4 emissionGlobalGlobal permafrost regionCommunity Land Model (CLM4.5-BGC) with improvement by Swenson et al. (2012).Lawrence et al., 2015